In a welcome development for consumers, particularly in transport and agriculture sectors, high-speed diesel (HSD) prices in Pakistan are projected to plummet significantly starting December 16, 2025. According to estimates from brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited, diesel rates could drop by a substantial Rs. 13.69 per litre, offering relief amid winter demands.
Conversely, petrol prices are anticipated to edge up slightly by Rs. 1.43 per litre, with the average cost rising from the current Rs. 263.45 to approximately Rs. 264.87 per litre. These adjustments stem from recent fluctuations in the international market, where gas oil (diesel) prices fell sharply by 7.8% to $81.40 per barrel in early December, down from $88.27 previously. Petrol (gasoline) saw a milder decline to $75.20 per barrel.
The Pakistani rupee’s stability against the dollar—averaging Rs. 280.59—has minimized exchange rate impacts, allowing most global reductions to pass through domestically. Analysts note normalizing dealer margins on HSD as another contributing factor. However, the government may offset some diesel relief by hiking the petroleum levy to align with FY2026 revenue goals, while oil marketing companies could see margin increases of Rs. 0.61 per litre, subject to Economic Coordination Committee approval.
No changes were detailed for kerosene or light diesel oil in these projections. The final prices, reviewed fortnightly by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), await official government notification on December 15 evening.
This Pakistan fuel prices December 2025 revision highlights responsiveness to global trends, potentially easing inflationary pressures on goods transportation via lower diesel costs, even as private vehicle owners face a minor petrol hike. Consumers are advised to monitor official announcements for confirmed rates.
