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The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has announced that strong monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are expected to penetrate the upper parts of Pakistan from August 22.
According to the forecast, a westerly wave is also likely to approach the country’s upper regions on the night of August 22, further strengthening the intensity of the system. Under these conditions, widespread rain, wind, and thundershowers accompanied by heavy to very heavy falls are expected in several parts of the country.
Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan
The PMD has predicted widespread rain, wind, and thundershowers in Azad Kashmir between August 23 and 27 with occasional gaps. Areas likely to be affected include:
- Neelum Valley
- Muzaffarabad
- Rawalakot
- Poonch
- Hattian
- Bagh
- Haveli
- Sudhanoti
- Kotli
- Bhimber
- Mirpur
Heavy to very heavy falls may occur at scattered places during this period.
In Gilgit-Baltistan, rain-wind/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls are expected in:
- Diamir
- Astore
- Ghizer
- Skardu
- Hunza
- Gilgit
- Ghanche
- Shigar
The wet spell is likely to persist from August 23 to 27.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) is set to receive widespread rainfall during this monsoon activity. The forecast indicates rain-wind/thundershowers with scattered heavy falls, sometimes very heavy, across multiple districts between August 23 and 26.
The affected districts include:
Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Shangla, Battagram, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Buner, Malakand, Bajaur, Mohmand, Kohat, Peshawar, Charsadda, Nowshera, Mardan, Swabi, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, Hangu, Karak, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Waziristan, Tank, and Dera Ismail Khan.
Punjab and Islamabad
A major spell of monsoon rains is expected to hit Punjab and Islamabad from August 23 to 27, with intermittent breaks. The forecast suggests widespread rain-wind/thundershowers, accompanied by heavy to very heavy falls at scattered places.
Areas likely to be significantly affected include:
Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Murree, Galliyat, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Wazirabad, Lahore, Kasur, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Narowal, Mianwali, Khushab, Sargodha, Jhang, Toba Tek Singh, Nankana Sahib, Chiniot, Faisalabad, and Sahiwal.
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Additionally, scattered rainfall with isolated heavy falls is expected in:
Dera Ghazi Khan, Bhakkar, Layyah, Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rajanpur, and Rahim Yar Khan on August 24 and 27.
Sindh
In Sindh, the rain activity will mainly affect the southeastern districts. The PMD forecast indicates rain-wind/thundershowers with occasional gaps in:
- Mithi
- Tharparkar
- Umer Kot
- Mirpurkhas
The spell is expected to last from the evening/night of August 23 until August 26.
Balochistan
Rainfall is also likely in northeastern and central districts of Balochistan between August 23 and 26. Districts expected to be affected include:
- Barkhan
- Musakhel
- Loralai
- Sibbi
- Zhob
- Kalat
- Khuzdar
Possible Impacts
The Met Office has cautioned that the incoming spell of monsoon rains could lead to:
- Urban flooding in low-lying areas of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Peshawar, and other major cities.
- Flash flooding in the hilly areas of Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, KP, and northeastern Balochistan.
- Landslides in Murree, Galliyat, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and the hilly areas of KP.
- Disruption of road networks and possible damage to weak infrastructure.
- Windstorms and lightning, posing risks to human life and property.
Advisory for Public and Authorities
The PMD has advised relevant authorities, including disaster management bodies, district administrations, and municipal agencies, to remain on high alert during the forecast period.
Travelers, tourists, and residents in vulnerable areas have also been urged to exercise caution, particularly in landslide- and flood-prone zones. Farmers are advised to manage their crops accordingly, while urban administrations have been instructed to clear drainage systems to avoid waterlogging.
Conclusion
The new spell of monsoon rains forecasted from August 22 onwards is likely to affect almost every region of Pakistan, from the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir to the plains of Punjab and the deserts of Sindh. With heavy to very heavy rainfall predicted in many districts, preparedness and timely precautionary measures will be key to minimizing the risks of flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage.
