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President Donald Trump offered sharply contradictory messages on Monday, first predicting the war with Iran could end “very complete” and sooner than expected, then threatening to strike Iran “twenty times harder” if Tehran blocks oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz .
The conflicting signals sent global financial markets on a roller coaster. Brent crude futures surged as much as 29% during Monday trading—hitting their highest levels since 2022—before paring gains to settle about 7% higher after Trump’s prediction of a quick end .
Trump told CBS News the conflict had progressed “much faster than initially expected” and claimed Iran’s military capabilities are nearly destroyed. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter,” he said .
Hours later, however, he posted on Truth Social: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far” .
| Iran: “We Will Determine the End of the War”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a defiant response rejecting Trump’s timeline and assertion of U.S. control over the conflict’s outcome.
“It is we who will determine the end of the war,” the IRGC said in a statement. “The equations and future status of the region are now in the hands of our armed forces; American forces will not end the war” .
The IRGC also warned it would not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue . The warning carries enormous weight: approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed for more than a week, leaving tankers unable to sail and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill .
| Markets Swing Wildly on Mixed Signals
The war of words triggered extreme volatility across financial markets:
Tony Sycamore, an IG market analyst, said: “The violent reaction stems from the markets seeing no obvious off-ramp in the escalating Middle East conflict, now a high-stakes standoff where neither side appears willing to blink first” .
| New Supreme Leader Consolidates Power
The defiant Iranian response comes one day after the regime appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, as successor to his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by Israeli strikes on the war’s first day .
State media showed large crowds in several cities rallying behind the new leader, waving Iranian flags and holding portraits of both Mojtaba and his father . University student Zahra Mirbagheri, 21, from Tehran, told Reuters: “It was a slap in the face to our enemies that thought the system will collapse with the killing of his father” .
However, some Iranians expressed fear that hopes for reform have been dashed. One businessman in Arak said: “The Guards and the system are still powerful. They have tens of thousands of forces ready to fight. We, the people, have nothing” .
Trump has declared Mojtaba Khamenei “unacceptable” and demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” while Israel has threatened to target him directly .
| Humanitarian Toll Mounts
The human cost of the conflict continues to escalate:
- Iran: At least 1,332 civilians killed, thousands wounded, according to Iran’s U.N. ambassador
- Lebanon: More than 400 people killed, nearly 700,000 displaced
- Israel: Death toll from Iranian strikes now at 11
Tehran was choked in black smoke after an oil refinery was hit, an escalation in strikes on Iran’s domestic energy supplies. World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire risks contaminating food, water and air .
Turkey said NATO air defences shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran that entered Turkish airspace—the second such incident of the war .
| Diplomatic Maneuvers and Supply Options
In a bid to calm energy markets, Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and announced the United States will waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage . According to multiple sources, this could mean further easing of sanctions on Russian oil, potentially complicating efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine .
Other options under consideration include a release from strategic petroleum reserves or restricting U.S. exports .
French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that France and its allies are preparing a “purely defensive” mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz .
| What Comes Next?
With neither side showing willingness to blink, the conflict appears locked in a dangerous stalemate. Trump insists the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government . Israel’s stated aim is to overthrow Iran’s system of clerical rule entirely . Tehran, meanwhile, has consolidated behind a new, hardline leader and vows to fight on.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found 67% of Americans expect gas prices to rise over the coming months, and only 29% approve of the war—a warning sign for Trump’s Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections .
For now, the world watches and waits as two powers trade threats, markets swing, and the human toll mounts with no end in sight.
