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The Earnings Estimate Cuts: Near-Term Headwinds
On March 11, 2026, Zacks Research reduced its first-quarter earnings estimate for Alliant Energy (NASDAQ: LNT) to $0.82 per share, down from a prior estimate of $0.87 . The firm also issued updated estimates for the remainder of 2026, including Q2 at $0.78 EPS, Q3 at $1.21 EPS, and Q4 at $0.60 EPS . The full-year 2026 consensus estimate currently sits at $3.23 per share, though the company itself has guided for a range of $3.36 to $3.46 .
These adjustments reflect near-term challenges, including increased operating costs, higher depreciation and amortization expenses, and adverse weather impacts that contributed to a year-over-year earnings decline in recent quarters . Bears point to these pressures as reasons for caution, noting potential equity dilution risks and macroeconomic uncertainties that could slow rate base growth .
📈 Yet Price Targets Rise: The Bull Case
Despite the lowered near-term estimates, Wall Street has been raising price targets:
The average price target now stands at approximately $73.80–$74.50, implying modest upside from current trading levels near $72 . Nine analysts rate the stock a Buy, with only two Hold ratings—a “Moderate Buy” consensus .
🔍 The Disconnect Explained
So why are targets rising while earnings estimates fall? Analysts are looking past near-term noise to structural growth drivers:
- Data Center Demand: Alliant is betting big on surging power needs from data centers. The company boosted its four-year capital spending plan by 17% to $13.4 billion specifically to support this growth . Management sees data center load as a catalyst for upward EPS revisions .
- Regulated Utility Stability: As a regulated utility serving nearly 1 million electric customers in Wisconsin and Iowa, Alliant offers predictable cash flows and defensive characteristics . Its effective tax rate of around 10% and strategies to leverage economic development position it well for long-term revenue expansion .
- Dividend Growth: The company recently increased its quarterly dividend to $0.535 per share (annualized $2.14), marking a 4.9% increase from prior payouts . With a 3.0% yield and payout ratio near 68%, income investors remain supportive .
- Decarbonization & Infrastructure: Alliant’s focus on accelerating coal retirements and renewable project development aligns with long-term industry trends and ESG capital flows .
📊 Valuation Considerations
The stock trades at approximately 20-22x forward earnings, which some analysts consider full but justified given growth prospects . Simply Wall Street’s DCF analysis presents a split view: the most followed narrative suggests a fair value of $74.09 (slightly undervalued), while a cash-flow based approach flags potential overvaluation at $67.54 .
💡 Investor Takeaway
The divergence between near-term earnings revisions and rising price targets reflects a market looking through 2026’s temporary headwinds toward multi-year tailwinds. For utility investors, the key questions are whether management can execute on its $13.4 billion capital plan, secure constructive regulatory treatment, and capture data center load without excessive cost overruns .
As one analyst noted, Alliant’s proactive alignment with customer demand and infrastructure modernization positions it to benefit from electrification and digital infrastructure growth—but setbacks on large projects could quickly weaken the bull case .
