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HOUSTON — State Rep. Steve Toth is leading in early vote returns over U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, the Houston Republican, in what is one of the state’s most closely watched GOP primaries for Congress .
📊 The Race So Far
The heavily Republican district, which includes Harris and Montgomery Counties, was redrawn in 2025 to be more conservative. Toth was leading in both counties, according to early vote totals released Tuesday night .
| County | Toth % | Crenshaw % |
|---|---|---|
| Harris | 52% | 48% |
| Montgomery | 55% | 45% |
🎯 Crenshaw’s Feuds with the Right
Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL who lost an eye in Afghanistan, has made a name for himself by calling out “outrage culture” among Democrats and Republicans alike . That willingness to critique his own party has landed him in an ongoing feud with right-wing media figures including former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and conspiracy theorist Candace Owens .
Carlson has repeatedly attacked Crenshaw on his streaming show, painting the congressman as insufficiently conservative and part of the establishment. Owens has echoed those attacks to her millions of followers, creating a persistent headache for Crenshaw in a district designed to reward ideological purity .
🔍 What’s at Stake
The 2nd District, stretching from The Woodlands to parts of Houston, was specifically drawn in 2025 to be more conservative—a response to shifting demographics and Crenshaw’s sometimes moderate reputation . The redrawn map invited primary challengers who could argue they better represent the district’s hard-right turn .
If Toth’s lead holds, it would mark one of the most significant primary upsets of the 2026 cycle and a clear message that crossing conservative media figures carries electoral consequences .
📉 What It Means
A Crenshaw loss would signal:
- The growing power of right-wing media to primary incumbent Republicans
- That ideological purity now outweighs military service and incumbency in safe GOP seats
- Potential trouble for other Republicans who’ve drawn the ire of Carlson, Owens, and their allies
The final results will depend on late-counted mail ballots and votes from remaining precincts, but Toth’s early lead has sent shockwaves through Texas political circles .
