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1 Overall Seed Duke Emerges as Tournament Favorite
The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is set, and the betting markets have quickly consolidated around the top seeds—with the Duke Blue Devils emerging as the clear favorite to win the national championship in Indianapolis .
After capturing the ACC tournament title and earning the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, Duke now sits atop most sportsbooks’ odds boards at approximately +300, narrowly edging out Michigan (+325 to +375) .
Championship Odds at a Glance
Here are the latest national title odds for the top contenders from major sportsbooks:
| Team | Seed/Region | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | No. 1 (East) | +300 | +333 | +295 |
| Michigan | No. 1 (Midwest) | +370 | +325 | +350 |
| Arizona | No. 1 (West) | +400 | +425 | +425 |
| Florida | No. 1 (South) | +750 | +600 | +650 |
| Houston | No. 2 (South) | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Iowa State | No. 2 (Midwest) | +1500 | +1900 | +1700 |
Sources: DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars
Duke’s Path: Top Seed, Toughest Road?
While the Blue Devils secured the top overall seed, the selection committee did them no favors with the bracket draw . The East Region is loaded with Hall of Fame coaching talent and dangerous programs:
- No. 2 seed Connecticut (+1800 to +3500) looms as a potential Elite Eight matchup
- No. 3 seed Michigan State (+5000) brings Tom Izzo’s tournament pedigree
- No. 4 seed Kansas (+4000 to +7500) and No. 5 seed St. John’s (+6600) add depth to the region
Despite the difficult draw, oddsmakers remain confident in Duke’s roster, headlined by National Player of the Year candidate Cameron Boozer . The Blue Devils open as massive 28.5-point favorites against 16-seed Siena in the first round .
Michigan: Still a Co-Favorite Despite Loss
The Wolverines entered Selection Sunday holding a slight edge over Duke at some sportsbooks after a dominant Big Ten regular season . Michigan won the conference by four games but fell to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament title game .
That loss, combined with Duke’s ACC tournament championship, appears to have shifted the balance. Michigan now sits at +325 to +375 across major books, with most oddsmakers placing them second behind the Blue Devils .
The Wolverines face a First Four winner (Howard or UMBC) in the opening round and are heavy favorites to reach the Sweet 16 at -900 odds .
Other Contenders: Arizona, Florida, and Houston
Arizona (+400 to +475) enjoyed a 23-0 start and captured the Big 12 tournament title, earning the No. 1 seed in the West Region with a geographic advantage .
Florida (+600 to +750), the defending national champion, slipped slightly after a loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament semifinals . The Gators drew a challenging path as the No. 1 seed in the South Region, with No. 2 seed Houston (+1000) potentially awaiting in the Elite Eight—in Houston .
Trends: Bettors Expecting “Chalky” Tournament
Following last season’s historic Final Four featuring all four No. 1 seeds, oddsmakers and handicappers expect another tournament dominated by the elite programs .
“The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field,” said Patrick Berbert, college basketball trader at Caesars Sportsbook . “From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again.”
Bruce Marshall, handicapper for WagerTalk/Gold Sheet, offered a slightly different view: “I don’t think we’ll see all of them (No. 1 seeds) in the Final Four. I think Michigan is beatable now” .
What to Watch
- Injuries: Duke is managing injuries to multiple starters, including guard Caleb Foster, which could impact their title run
- Purdue’s surge: The Boilermakers (+3000) jumped significantly after their unlikely Big Ten tournament title run
- Arkansas (+5000 to +6000): The SEC tournament champions have won five straight and are gaining momentum
The 2026 NCAA Tournament tips off Tuesday with the First Four in Dayton, Ohio. The national championship game will be played April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis .
