Table of Contents
Donors Move Behind the Scenes for Rubio
A group of Republican donors who support Secretary of State Marco Rubio has quietly begun discussing ways to boost his political future ahead of the 2028 presidential election, multiple sources told ABC News . The emerging behind-the-scenes effort aims to elevate Rubio within the party and launch a potential “draft Rubio” campaign following the 2026 midterms .
The discussions are being driven by donors and surrogates who back Rubio, not the secretary of state himself, reflecting what some in Trump-aligned circles see as growing enthusiasm for Rubio’s rising profile inside the administration . However, a senior Republican operative cautioned that “donors don’t pick the nominee — the base picks,” noting that donor efforts to boost Ron DeSantis over Trump failed spectacularly .
Rubio’s Star Rises Amid Iran War
Rubio’s profile has surged particularly since the Trump administration’s recent strikes on Iran, with the secretary emerging as a leading voice communicating Operation Epic Fury alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth . When President Trump gave the green light for the attack, Rubio was already en route to Mar-a-Lago, where he monitored the operation’s first hours at the president’s side .
Trump has taken notice, privately and publicly praising Rubio as “popular” and “loved,” predicting he will go down as “the greatest secretary of state in history” . The president has repeatedly asked donors and advisers for their thoughts on Rubio versus Vance, including at a February dinner at Mar-a-Lago where attendees applauded noticeably louder for Rubio .
Vance’s Challenges: The ‘Tucker Dilemma’
While Vance remains the early polling favorite—leading Rubio 52% to 20% among Republican primary voters, according to a February Emerson College Poll —questions are emerging over his inevitability . Some administration advisers have expressed frustration with Vance’s close ties to critics of the Iran war, including popular commentator Tucker Carlson, who called the operation “absolutely disgusting and evil” .
Influential far-right activist Laura Loomer, who has Trump’s ear, has emerged as one of Vance’s staunchest critics, calling this the “Tucker dilemma” and warning: “If he doesn’t disavow him, Marco’s going to be the nominee” . Vance, who served as a Marine in Iraq, was reportedly “less enthusiastic” about the strikes than Trump, a difference the president has acknowledged .
Prediction Markets Signal Shift
Prediction markets reflect Rubio’s momentum. On the regulated exchange Kalshi, Rubio now leads the 2028 field with a 19% chance of becoming the next president, leapfrogging Vance (18%, tied with Gavin Newsom) . On Polymarket, Vance maintains a narrower lead at 21% to Rubio’s 15% .
But the political risks are real. An Ipsos poll found just 29% of Americans approve of the Iran strikes, while 64% say Trump hasn’t clearly explained the war’s objectives . Rubio’s approval rating has taken a hit amid the conflict, dropping from 40% to 36% in one Daily Mail/JL Partners poll .
Trump’s Role: Who Will He Anoint?
Trump has thus far declined to formally endorse either Vance or Rubio, instead saying he’d like to see them run together on a joint ticket . But he continues to test the waters, asking donors: “Marco or JD?” .
Trump has noted he and Vance are “philosophically a little bit different” on the war, while praising Rubio’s loyalty and visibility . Rubio has publicly pledged support for Vance, telling Vanity Fair last year: “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him” .
As the Iran war continues and the 2026 midterms approach, the quiet battle for the GOP’s future is already taking shape behind the scenes.
