KARACHI – The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is set to announce its monetary policy today, April 27, 2026, with the Monetary Policy Committee meeting under the chairmanship of Governor Jameel Ahmed to determine the benchmark interest rate for the next one and a half months .
The policy rate currently stands at 10.5 percent after the SBP kept it unchanged in the previous review . However, analysts are divided on the direction of today’s decision amid competing economic pressures.
A recent survey by Topline Securities revealed that 53 percent of respondents anticipate a rate hike, with 41.2 percent predicting an increase of 50 to 100 basis points . The expectation is driven primarily by rising oil prices following heightened Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which have pushed short-term inflation to 14 percent for the week ending April 23 .
Pakistan’s headline inflation rose to 7.3 percent year-on-year in March 2026, up from 7 percent in February, breaching the central bank’s target range of 5 to 7 percent . Recent petrol and diesel price hikes have further fueled inflationary expectations .
However, a significant number of analysts advocate for holding the rate steady. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics argues that a rate hike would be “premature” given that the policy rate remains above inflation, while GDP growth has improved to 3.89 percent in Q2 FY2026 . The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry has also urged policymakers to avoid further increases, warning that additional tightening could adversely affect business activity .
The IMF executive board is scheduled to meet on May 8 to consider approving over $1.2 billion for Pakistan,SBP Set to Announce Monetary Policy Today Amid Rate Hike Expectations
